Can Virginia GOP Stick Together?

Virginia Republicans just can’t handle prosperity.

After potentially devastating back-to-back-to-back losses in statewide elections (Kaine in 2005, Webb in 2006 and Warner/Obama in 2008), the state GOP regained its power by sweeping the 2009 races (McDonnell, Bolling and Cuccinelli), picking up three of 11 seats in the 2010 congressional elections, and essentially taking control of the state legislature in 2011.

So what happens?

Senate Showdown

First, despite having gained only a 20-20 tie in the state Senate, the GOP asserts that it controls the body because Bill Bolling, as lieutenant governor, would cast tie-breaking votes, including those to elect leaders and form committees.  The Democrats have challenged that assertion, and although a circuit court judge dismissed that challenge, stay tuned – this issue is not likely to go away quickly.  If the GOP cannot compromise a little bit on some sort of power-sharing arrangement, look for Senate Democrats to use every parliamentary and judicial maneuver available to block key legislation.   Even bills that are approved may be in jeopardy if the courts haven’t made a final ruling on the matter.

Cuccinelli on the Run

Then, worse, Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli pre-emptively throws his hat into the ring for the GOP nomination for governor in 2013.  That’s right, 2013 – still almost two years away.  He did so despite the fact that Bolling stood aside in 2009 after his first term as lieutenant governor to let Bob McDonnell, then the attorney general, run for governor.  Bolling’s largesse helped to contribute to a unified GOP – and a sweep of the top three statewide offices.  As a second-term lieutenant governor, Bolling has been a trooper – turning the part-time job into a full-time role as the state’s “job czar” and spending countless hours on the road talking to business and community leaders.

But Cuccinelli has never been one to stand down from any challenge.  So, after less than two years as attorney general, he’s set the stage for a primary or convention battle with Bolling.  This will also be a fight for the heart and soul of the Virginia GOP, because Cuccinelli is the darling of the right and the Tea Partiers – even McDonnell has distanced himself from some of Cuccinelli’s positions – while Bolling is more moderate.  As is often the case with the GOP, Bolling would be more likely to win a general election, but Cuccinelli will appeal to the hard-core Republicans who will turn out for a nomination fight.

Were Cuccinelli to seek re-election as attorney general and allow Bolling to run for governor, the GOP might be well-positioned for another sweep, with no strong Democratic statewide candidates in sight (unless Tim Kaine loses to George Allen in the U.S. Senate race next year and decides he’d like to be governor again). Instead, the Cuccinelli-Bolling fight has the potential to waste valuable resources (i.e., money) and leave the winner vulnerable in November.  It also leaves the GOP with untested statewide candidates for both lower offices and more potential intra-party battles.  Already at least two members of the legislature have announced their intentions to run for attorney general.

Don’t Forget 2012

Finally, the GOP needs to be unified long before 2013.  Next year will be pivotal for the party: The Allen-Kaine race is shaping up as a barn-burner (Allen also faces primary opposition), the state’s 11 congressmen will be running in re-drawn districts, and Virginia is likely to play a critical role again in the presidential election. But swaying and motivating key independent voters will be difficult if the GOP can’t show that it can govern effectively and fairly while in control of the legislature and if Cuccinelli is lobbing grenades from the right.  For those of us who enjoy politics, though, it should be fun to watch.

What do you think?